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Browne Mortgage Team
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March 11, 2026
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Spring is arriving, but Canadian mortgage holders and homebuyers are approaching the season with more caution than optimism. Rates are holding steady, geopolitical uncertainty is nudging fixed rates upward, and the Fraser Valley continues to favour buyers sitting on the sidelines. Here is what happened this week and what it means for you.
Bank of Canada Holds Steady, But Watch March 18
The Bank of Canada has kept its overnight rate at 2.25% since December 2025, and most major economists expect that to continue through much of 2026. TD, CIBC, RBC, BMO, Desjardins, and Capital Economics all broadly agree: barring a major shock, rates hold.
But there is a dissenting camp. Scotiabank and National Bank of Canada have flagged the possibility of a rate increase of up to 50 basis points by year-end, citing persistent inflation risks. The next announcement lands March 18. Do not expect drama, but do pay attention.
For variable-rate borrowers, the current environment is still relatively friendly. Some 5-year variable terms are available as low as 3.35%. Fixed rates are a different story.
Geopolitical Tension Is Already Moving Fixed Rates
The escalating conflict involving Iran has introduced a new variable into the Canadian mortgage picture. Sustained higher oil prices could reignite inflation and give the Bank of Canada reason to delay any future cuts, or worse, consider increases. Lenders have already started pricing in this risk. Fixed mortgage rates have ticked up approximately 0.25% across major lenders in recent weeks.
If you are on a variable rate and sleeping fine, stay the course. If you are renewing in the next six months and weighing fixed versus variable, this is worth a conversation with your broker before March 18.
Canada’s Housing Market Is in a “Deep Correction”
The broader national housing market, particularly the condo sector, is working through a significant downturn. Unsold units hit record highs in 2025 in Toronto and Vancouver, and CMHC is projecting a bleak construction outlook through 2028, citing higher costs, weaker demand, and excess inventory.
Affordability did improve modestly in January 2026, with 12 of 13 major markets seeing some relief. However, the improvements are incremental. Vancouver’s average monthly mortgage payment dropped by about $100. That is real money, but it does not solve a structural problem.
For homeowners facing renewal, declining property values are creating a squeeze: refinancing and extended amortizations are technically available but harder to qualify for when your home has lost value and loan-to-value ratios no longer work in your favour.
Fraser Valley Showing a “Spring Thaw,” But Still a Buyer’s Market
February 2026 data from the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board shows some life returning to the market after a quiet January. Sales rose 36% from January to 843 homes, and activity picked up in Langley, Surrey, and Abbotsford. In Abbotsford alone, apartment sales jumped 45.5% month-over-month.
That said, do not mistake movement for momentum. Sales are still 38% below the ten-year seasonal average. Active listings climbed to 8,344 homes, which is 51% above the ten-year average. With a sales-to-active ratio of just 10% (a balanced market is 12-20%), buyers still hold the leverage.
Benchmark prices continued their gradual slide. The composite benchmark sits at $895,100, down 0.2% from January. Detached homes are at $1,370,900 (down 8.6% year-over-year), townhomes at $770,700 (down 7.1% year-over-year), and condos at $488,300 (down 8.9% year-over-year). Townhomes remain the most resilient category, sitting near balanced market territory at a 15.8% sales-to-active ratio.
Rent Prices Keep Falling
If you are holding a rental property in BC, the trend is not working in your favour. National average rents fell 2.8% year-over-year in February to $2,030, marking the 17th consecutive month of decline and a 33-month low. BC rents dropped 4.9% on average, with Vancouver seeing a 7.2% year-over-year decline.
Some smaller cities are bucking the trend, including Nanaimo, Kingston, Waterloo, and Hamilton. But the Fraser Valley rental picture continues to soften alongside ownership prices.
What This Means For You
Renewing in 2026? Get ahead of your renewal rather than accepting your lender’s first offer. With most economists expecting rates to hold, there is no urgency to lock into a long-term fixed right now unless certainty matters more to you than cost.
Buying in the Fraser Valley? Inventory is plentiful, prices are still sliding, and sellers are negotiating. If your financing is in order, this is one of the better entry windows the valley has offered in years. Homes are sitting an average of 39 to 47 days before selling.
Holding a variable rate? Stay aware of the March 18 announcement and the geopolitical situation. A 50-basis-point increase by year-end is not the consensus view, but it is not zero either.
Have questions about your mortgage situation heading into spring? Reach out to the Browne Mortgage team for a no-obligation conversation about your options.
